CONVECTIVE FORECAST
VALID Fri 13 Jan 06:00 - Sat 14 Jan 06:00 2006 (UTC)
ISSUED: 12 Jan 21:23 (UTC)
FORECASTER: TUSCHY

Thunderstorms are forecast across Ireland and parts of United Kingdom

SYNOPSIS

Most parts of Europe will be under the influence of a strong [1035hPa] high pressure area / placed over central Europe / and attendant cool and stable airmass.
A weak upper-level disturbance, coming offshore from S-France during the early morning hours, will move SSE-ward over the central Mediterranean ... A few storms should develop and there is a low-end possibility for an isolated waterspout, but over-all conditions look too marginal for any enhanced svr wx. chances in this area.

DISCUSSION

...Ireland and parts of United Kingdom...
Yesterday, an outbreak of arctic air from Greenland occured over the N-central Atlantic... 20 UTC IR loop [ 12.01.06 ] showed a broad area with vigorous convection west of Ireland/Iceland...Impressive number of SFLOC reports also reported from this area...But there are a few factors which indicate, that the TSTM activity should slowly ease during the forecast period... Upper-level airmass ( up to -40°C in H5 yesterday ) should warm up significantly during the next 24 hours and shift NE-ward pretty fast....Another reason for weaker temperature differences between H5 - surface will be that the low level CAA will recover cold upper-level airmass pretty fast... SEE TEXT area will see highest TSTM probabilities, because of best thermodynamic conditions...SBCAPE values in the order of 300 J/kg [GFS] also look reasonable... Slightly enhanced LL shear should cause low-end severe wind threat, mainly around Scotland... It looks like best thermodynamic/kinematic fields will be seperated, but situation will be monitored if convection can develop further to the east.
Although the weather pattern will be quite favorable for polar low development, latest IR loops showed no signs for any possible development.... but model problems and quite fast evolution of such features houses too much uncertainties that far out, so will stay with broad SEE TEXT area ATM.

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